中国未来极端降水事件的变化——基于气候变化预估结果的分析

利用区域气候模式PRECIS单向嵌套Hadley气候中心海-气耦合模式HadCM3高分辨率的大气部分HadAM3P,分别进行了气候基准时段(1961—1990年)和2080 s时段(2071—2100年)中国区域各30年时间长度的模拟试验,以分析PRECIS对当代中国区域极端降水事件的模拟能力和SRES B2情景下2080s时段相对于气候基准时段中国区域极端降水事件的可能变化趋势。气候基准时段模拟结果与观测值的对比分析表明:PRECIS能够较好地模拟出中国区域年平均极端降水事件的空间分布特征,但模式模拟的大雨事件和湿日数高值区范围较观测值偏大,对华南地区暴雨事件和日最大降水事件的模拟结果较观测值偏低。SRES B2情景下,2080s时段年平均大雨事件除东北和华南地区外,全国均呈增多趋势。暴雨事件在西部地区以减少为主,而东部地区主要呈增加趋势。年平均日最大降水事件的分布型与大雨事件基本一致。湿日数除华北、西北和青藏高原部分地区外均呈减少趋势。未来长江流域洪涝灾害事件发生的频率将可能增大。     

北方草地干旱指标

介绍了内蒙古自治区和青海、新疆省的草地干旱指标研究。通过对大量历史资料的统计分析得出0～30cm深土壤层的相对湿度与相对蒸降差这两个物理量,与牧草生长发育及产草量有密切的关系。三省、自治区分别以土壤相对湿度与相对蒸降差为指标,对草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原进行了干旱等级划分和检验,结果较为满意。     

陕西龙卷、尘卷风时空分布和日变化规律分析

本文整理分析了陕西的7次龙卷天气,重点分析了陕西尘卷风的时空变化特点和日变化规律,并与以前的一些研究成果进行了比较.     

广东省水旱灾害风险分析与农业可持续发展

水旱灾害历来是威胁严重的自然灾害,它制约着广东省农业生产和社会经济发展.本文分析了广东省水旱灾害的特点及成因,根据1950～2002年的资料,应用信息扩散方法对广东省的水旱灾害进行了风险评估,勾画出广东省水旱灾受灾率概率分布曲线图,提出了广东省农业减灾的措施:合理调整农业布局和作物种植结构,采取趋利避害的农业措施,推行有效的防灾技术,改善农业生态环境,增强防灾减灾意识,提高防灾减灾水平.     

洪泽湖湿地生态脆弱性的理论与实践

近年淮河流域洪涝灾害的频发,使洪泽湖湿地生态脆弱带区域受到越来越多的关注.分析了生态脆弱性的内涵、机理、特征以及其脆弱性的成因,主要表现在地貌基底的脆弱性、过渡带界面的脆弱性、旱涝灾害交替波动的脆弱性、水质污染的介入性脆弱,以及人类活动综合影响的干扰性脆弱.     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

DROUGHT,TREE RINGS,AND RESERVOIR DESIGN1

Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration, severity, and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or stream‐flow. Under suitable conditions, and with proper analysis, tree rings obtained from long living, climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree‐ring “reconstructions” provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene, and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence, a brief review of the basic theory of tree‐ring reconstructions, and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree‐ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability.     

海岸带风暴潮减水的统计分析

在青岛大港观测站连续30年实测资料的基础上,按照年、季、月等时段分别抽样,对风暴潮减水进行了长期统计分析.考虑到海岸地区风暴潮减水的诱因不同,在一维复合极值分布的基础上,提出了"组合分布法".新方法探讨了假设所有数据源于同一分布而产生的重现值估计误差.与年极值法和阈值法的计算结果进行了比较,说明以往算法得到的重现值偏低,并给出了青岛地区受季节变化影响的风暴减水设计重现值.统计表明,青岛大港春、秋、冬季均有风暴减水发生.由于寒潮大风是其产生的主导因素,以冬季的极值减水序列为样本,所得重现值与考虑季节变化得到的重现值相当.说明在实际工程区域,选取主要天气形势产生的水文要素为样本,替代所有观测数据,使统计计算得以简化的做法是可行的.     

土壤干旱和内源ABA对夏玉米产量的影响

对不同程度土壤干旱胁迫和夏玉米根、茎、叶中脱落酸含量变化对产量形成的影响进行了试验研究.充足底墒条件下播种后采用5个土壤水分等级(0～2m土壤相对湿度分别为>80%,70%～80%,60%～70%,50%～60%和40%～50%,处理代号分别为WT1～WT5),生育期内遮去自然降水.试验结果表明,轻度土壤干旱胁迫(WT3处理)下,由于表土层干旱促进了根源信号的产生、运输和累积,明显抑制了叶面积的发育和地上部分的干物质累积,降低了地上部分水分损失;同时该处理的玉米植株根系发育良好,不仅有效地利用了表土层的水分,而且根系向土壤深层延伸吸收利用土壤深层贮存的水分,有效地缓解了干旱胁迫和根信号对产量形成造成的负面影响,在土壤水分利用和获取之间达到了较好的平衡,提高了植株体的水分利用率并增加了收获指数.     

洞庭湖区旱涝特征浅析

洞庭湖区是一个旱涝频繁发生的地区；整个洞庭湖区以洪涝年居多，干旱年次之；湖区洪涝发生具有持续性特点，干旱发生具有间歇性特点。